Is there anything left to celebrate in Toronto besides the Maple Leafs embracing a full-blown tank? If you found yourself at the rather dismal game on Monday night between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Philadelphia Flyers, you might have pondered some deep questions about the entire experience. Perhaps you wondered, "Why am I even here, surrounded by so many empty seats and a surprising number of opposing team's jerseys?" and more importantly, "What exactly am I supposed to be cheering for?"
To quickly catch you up, the Maple Leafs' playoff aspirations have essentially vanished in the week following the Olympic break, marked by three consecutive disappointing losses. A fourth game, a narrow 3-2 shootout defeat on Monday, didn't significantly alter their position in the standings but did offer a glimpse into what the future might hold. Interestingly, the Leafs displayed a much-improved performance compared to recent games, showcasing uncharacteristic passion and effective puck possession. This positive outing even boosted their "Deserve To Win O’Meter" significantly, a notable improvement over most of their games this season. The overall feeling of this game was that of a potential foundation-laying night for a team that has only managed two regulation wins in their last seventeen outings.
As William Nylander optimistically stated postgame, "I think today was a step in the right direction and that’s what we want to keep building off."
But here's where it gets tricky: The Leafs have unfortunately missed their prime opportunity to salvage their season. Their current likelihood of making the playoffs has dwindled to a mere 3 percent. However, their chances of securing a top-five draft pick have now climbed to 11 percent. Anything outside of these two outcomes – the remaining 86 percent – means a valuable draft pick (likely between sixth and sixteenth overall) will be heading to their division rival, the Boston Bruins.
With 21 games still to play, the final quarter of this challenging season will largely revolve around two critical aspects: What can the team trade away and acquire before Friday's trade deadline? And, how can they maximize their chances in the draft lottery by accumulating more losses?
Regarding the first question, the consensus among experts suggests an over-under of three-and-a-half Maple Leafs players being traded. This isn't exactly a beacon of hope for those anticipating a significant roster overhaul. Toronto has four pending unrestricted free agents (UFAs) who can be dealt as rentals – Bobby McMann, Scott Laughton, Troy Stecher, and Calle Jarnkrok. These players should represent the absolute minimum of what the team aims to accomplish in the trade market over the next four days.
Meanwhile, the draft lottery odds are certainly worth keeping an eye on, irrespective of who stays or goes. After securing a single point against the Flyers, the Leafs moved up to 23rd place in the league, which translates to 10th last. This position offers a 7.3 percent chance of winning the draft lottery and landing a top-three pick (specifically, a 3.5 percent chance for the first pick, 3.7 percent for the second, and a tiny 0.1 percent for the third).
The Leafs are currently nine points ahead of the Calgary Flames and Chicago Blackhawks, who occupy the bottom five spots. This gap will be incredibly difficult to close, especially with Calgary and Chicago expected to be active sellers. The Blackhawks have already initiated their sell-off by trading Connor Murphy to the Oilers on Monday afternoon. These teams are projected to finish with around 75 points, and they are likely to worsen. Toronto has already accumulated 64 points, meaning they would need to perform historically poorly for the remainder of the season to fall below that mark.
However, a further slide down the standings is certainly possible. Toronto is essentially tied with the Los Angeles Kings, who have recently acquired Artemi Panarin and are attempting to make a playoff push. The Nashville Predators are only two points behind them and have been surprisingly strong lately. The New Jersey Devils, whom the Leafs face on the road on Wednesday, are four points back and are not anticipated to be major sellers this week. One could even argue that the Winnipeg Jets might catch Toronto, given they have two games in hand and a formidable goaltender in Connor Hellebuyck.
And this is the part most people miss: A drop from 10th last to 6th last would more than double the Leafs' lottery odds to 15.4 percent, with a 7.5 percent chance of securing the first overall pick and a 7.7 percent chance of picking second. While still a long shot, remember that the New York Islanders had only a 3.5 percent chance of landing the first overall pick last offseason and miraculously ended up with a franchise-altering superstar in Matthew Schaefer.
A one-in-seven chance of this disastrous season culminating in a player of that caliber for the Leafs would be truly remarkable.
What's truly astonishing about the Leafs' current predicament is that their record could have been significantly worse. During a 13-game stretch in late December and early January, they achieved an impressive 9-1-3 record, defeating several strong opponents along the way. At the time, it felt like a surge that would save their season and, potentially, coach Craig Berube's job. In hindsight, however, it merely propelled them into this unfortunate no-man's-land. The most probable outcome by a wide margin is that they will gift another valuable asset to the Boston Bruins, a team that has historically benefited from Toronto's management blunders on numerous occasions (think Tuukka Rask, Tyler Seguin, Dougie Hamilton, and Fraser Minten, among others).
If we were to exclude those 13 games from consideration, the Leafs' record in the remaining 48 games stands at a mere 18-23-7, which equates to a 73-point pace over a full season. Only the last-place Vancouver Canucks and second-to-last place St. Louis Blues have performed worse over the entire year.
In essence, the Maple Leafs have been one of the NHL's worst teams for the majority of this campaign. Their objective now should be to fully embrace this identity for the remainder of the season. This means actively trading away their UFAs and any underperforming players, while also giving more ice time to younger prospects and sidelining veterans who are dealing with injuries.
There's a potential silver lining if they can acquire draft picks and prospects through trades, gain valuable experience for players like Easton Cowan and other Marlies prospects in meaningful games, and simultaneously improve their lottery odds. This is precisely what the Boston Bruins did last year. They won just three of their final 16 games (a record of 3-11-2), finishing fifth last in the league and ultimately securing a promising young player (James Hagens) with the seventh overall pick after the lottery.
The Leafs' path is undoubtedly complicated by the fact that they only retain their pick if it falls within the top five. However, that particular oversight by the front office is in the past. Ultimately, it's more advantageous to have better lottery odds and potentially offer Boston a slightly higher draft selection than to strive for more wins in these ultimately meaningless games down the stretch.
So, my advice? Embrace the tank. Be bad. And with a bit of luck, you might just strike gold.
Given how much of the year you've been unintentionally tanking, this shouldn't be too difficult, right?
What are your thoughts on the Maple Leafs' current situation? Do you agree with the strategy of embracing the tank, or do you believe they should try to win as many games as possible? Share your opinions in the comments below!
